Conor Bradley’s header crashed off the crossbar in the 27th minute, the closest either team came to scoring in a match that felt more significant for what didn’t happen than what did. Arsenal’s 0-0 draw against Liverpool at Emirates Stadium on January 8 wasn’t the statement victory Mikel Arteta’s side might have wanted, but it was exactly the result they needed. The Gunners maintained their six-point cushion over Manchester City and Aston Villa, kept the defending champions at arm’s length in fourth place, and demonstrated the defensive solidity that championship teams require when their attacking rhythm abandons them.
Liverpool registered an expected goals total of just 0.36 against Arsenal’s defense, a figure that reflects both the Reds’ attacking struggles this season and the Gunners’ organization without the ball. Arsenal dominated the first half territorially but couldn’t convert that dominance into goals, a familiar frustration for a team that has occasionally prioritized control over clinical finishing. The draw extends Arsenal’s unbeaten run to five matches since their only league defeat of the season at Aston Villa in December, a stretch that includes victories over Newcastle, Brighton, Everton, West Ham, and Bournemouth.
The result leaves Arsenal in commanding position with 49 points from 21 matches, their best start to a Premier League season since the Invincibles campaign in 2003-04. Historical precedent suggests this lead should be decisive. Teams leading by six or more points after 20 matches have gone on to win the title 66.6% of the time. Yet Arsenal carry the weight of recent history as well: they’ve started the calendar year in first place five times since their last championship in 2004, and five times they’ve failed to convert that position into a trophy.
Arteta was direct when asked about that statistic after the Liverpool match. “Let’s break it,” he said, capturing the mentality of a squad that seems determined to avoid another late-season collapse. The question isn’t whether Arsenal are good enough to win this title. They’ve proven that repeatedly this season. The question is whether they can sustain that level over the remaining 17 matches while their closest competitors apply pressure from behind.
Liverpool’s Implosion: Champions to Also-Rans
The defending Premier League champions arrived at Emirates Stadium as the fourth-placed team in a league they dominated just eight months ago. Liverpool’s season has followed a trajectory that nobody could have anticipated when they won their opening five matches and appeared poised to defend their title with authority. Something broke in early autumn, and despite the resources spent to prevent exactly this scenario, the Reds have been unable to recover.
The numbers are stark. Liverpool are winless in 2026, extending a slump that began with four consecutive league defeats in October and November. Their attacking output against Arsenal, that 0.36 xG, represents the struggles of a team that paid enormous transfer fees for Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz only to watch their offensive system malfunction under the weight of those additions. The balance that produced last season’s title has been disrupted, and manager Arne Slot hasn’t found a configuration that restores it.
The Mohamed Salah situation has dominated coverage of Liverpool’s decline, and the fallout from his contract negotiations clearly affected team chemistry at a critical moment. But reducing Liverpool’s collapse to a single player dispute oversimplifies what happened. The summer spending spree that brought Isak and Wirtz also disrupted partnerships that had functioned seamlessly under Slot’s system. New players required integration time that the Premier League schedule doesn’t provide, and the results suffered accordingly.
Liverpool’s draw at Arsenal effectively ends any remaining mathematical hope of catching the Gunners. Fourteen points separate the teams with 17 matches remaining, a gap that would require a historic Arsenal collapse combined with a Liverpool surge that nothing in their recent form suggests is coming. The defending champions will now focus on securing Champions League qualification, a goal that seemed comically modest when the season began but now represents genuine uncertainty given their position in the table.
Arsenal’s Formula: Defense First, Patience Always
The Gunners’ title challenge is built on a defensive foundation that has conceded just 14 goals in 21 matches, the fewest in the Premier League and a rate that projects to the stingiest season in Arsenal history. William Saliba and Gabriel have formed a central defensive partnership that opponents struggle to penetrate, while David Raya has provided the goalkeeping consistency that Arteta’s system requires. The team doesn’t need to outscore opponents when they rarely allow opponents to score at all.
The 0-0 draw against Liverpool illustrated this identity perfectly. Arsenal controlled possession, created enough chances to win comfortably, but couldn’t find the finishing touch that would have turned dominance into victory. A lesser team might panic at such performances, pressing forward recklessly in search of goals and leaving themselves vulnerable to counterattacks. Arteta’s Arsenal simply maintained their shape, trusted their process, and accepted that a point against the defending champions represented progress rather than failure.
The attacking talent exists to win matches more decisively. Bukayo Saka remains one of the Premier League’s most dangerous wide players, capable of creating goals from nothing when Arsenal need inspiration. Martin Ødegaard orchestrates from midfield with the intelligence that Arteta’s system demands. Kai Havertz has found a home as a false nine, his movement and link-up play complementing the wide creators who surround him. When the attack clicks, Arsenal are devastating. When it doesn’t, they’re still extremely difficult to beat.
The fixture list favors Arsenal down the stretch. Their remaining away matches include only two against teams currently in the top half of the table, providing opportunities to accumulate points against opponents without the quality to expose their occasional attacking inconsistency. Home matches against the contenders will determine whether the title comes to North London, but Arsenal have lost just once at Emirates Stadium all season and that defensive record suggests they won’t be easy to beat there.
The Ghost of Seasons Past: Can Arsenal Finally Break Through?
The psychological dimension of Arsenal’s title pursuit cannot be ignored. This team has experienced heartbreak in consecutive seasons, finishing second to Manchester City twice under circumstances that suggested the gap was closing but never quite closing fast enough. Those experiences could manifest as either motivation or anxiety when the pressure intensifies in spring. Arteta’s challenge involves ensuring his players treat those near-misses as preparation rather than trauma.
The manager has consistently deflected questions about past failures, insisting that each season exists independently and that dwelling on what happened before serves no productive purpose. His players seem to share that mindset. The five-match winning streak that followed the Villa defeat demonstrated resilience rather than the kind of wobble that characterized previous title challenges. This Arsenal team responds to adversity with determination rather than doubt.
Manchester City remain the most dangerous threat to Arsenal’s title ambitions despite sitting six points behind. Pep Guardiola’s teams have demonstrated an ability to chase down leads that other clubs cannot replicate, winning four consecutive titles in part because they understand how to apply pressure when frontrunners falter. City’s schedule includes a direct match against Arsenal that could significantly alter the title picture depending on timing and form. The Gunners cannot afford to assume their current lead is safe.
Aston Villa represent an intriguing dark horse, level with City on points and playing with the confidence of a team that has nothing to lose. Unai Emery’s side beat Arsenal in December, demonstrating they can compete with the leaders when conditions align. Whether Villa can sustain that level over a full season remains uncertain, but their presence ensures that any Arsenal stumble will be punished immediately.
The Path Forward: What Arsenal Must Do
The next six weeks will determine whether Arsenal’s title challenge is real or another prelude to disappointment. Matches against Tottenham, Chelsea, and Manchester City await, tests that will reveal whether this squad has the championship quality that has eluded the club since 2004. Winning those fixtures would effectively end the race. Dropping points in all three would reopen it entirely. The margin for error has narrowed even as Arsenal’s lead has grown.
Arteta needs his attacking players to find consistency that has occasionally escaped them this season. The 0-0 against Liverpool highlighted finishing that didn’t match the quality of chances created, a pattern that has appeared too frequently for a team with title aspirations. The defense can keep Arsenal in every match, but the attack needs to win enough of them to convert the current position into a trophy.
The January transfer window provides an opportunity to address any concerns about squad depth. Arsenal haven’t been heavily linked with signings, suggesting confidence in the current group, but Arteta has historically used this window strategically to reinforce positions where injuries or fatigue might become factors in spring. Even modest additions could prove decisive if they provide fresh legs during the crucial final stretch.
The Bottom Line
Arsenal are in pole position to end their 22-year Premier League title drought, and the Liverpool draw did nothing to change that reality. The Gunners have the points cushion, the defensive quality, and the schedule to convert this opportunity into a championship. What they lack is the experience of actually winning, and that absence creates uncertainty that statistics cannot quantify.
Liverpool’s collapse has removed the defending champions from the race, leaving Manchester City as the only realistic challenger with the pedigree to mount a sustained pursuit. The direct match between Arsenal and City will likely determine the title, providing a defining moment that will either confirm Arsenal’s superiority or expose vulnerabilities that City can exploit down the stretch.
Prediction: Arsenal will win the Premier League by four points over Manchester City, ending the longest title drought in the club’s modern history. The defense is too good, the squad too deep, and the psychological preparation too thorough for another collapse. Arteta has built a team specifically designed to win championships, and this is the year that design becomes reality. The 22-year wait ends in May.
