Tyler Loop’s 44-yard field goal attempt sailed wide right as time expired Sunday night, and with it, the Baltimore Ravens’ season ended in the most gut-wrenching fashion imaginable. The Pittsburgh Steelers’ 26-24 victory didn’t just clinch the AFC North title and the final playoff spot. It punctuated the most dramatic final week of an NFL regular season in recent memory, setting the stage for what promises to be the most unpredictable postseason in years.
For the first time since Patrick Mahomes became the Chiefs’ starting quarterback in 2018, Kansas City will be watching the playoffs from home. Let that sink in. The franchise that won three of the last six Super Bowls, that seemed to have a permanent reservation in the AFC Championship Game, finished 8-9 after a season derailed by injuries and an aging roster that finally caught up to them. The dynasty isn’t dead, but it’s certainly on life support, and the entire AFC playoff picture looks radically different because of it.
This year’s tournament features six teams that missed the playoffs entirely last season: the Seahawks, Patriots, Bears, 49ers, Jaguars, and Panthers. That’s the most playoff turnover since the league expanded to 14 teams in 2020. And with no clear favorite in either conference, every matchup in Wild Card Weekend carries genuine upset potential.
The AFC: Denver’s Emergence and the Patriots’ Resurrection
The Denver Broncos earning the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye would have seemed laughable two years ago. After cycling through quarterbacks like they were trying on shoes, the franchise finally found stability with a revamped offensive line and a defense that ranks second in points allowed. Their 13-4 record represents the best turnaround in franchise history since the John Elway era.
But Denver’s path to Super Bowl LX is far from guaranteed. The New England Patriots’ resurgence under their rebuilt roster has been the feel-good story of the AFC. After years of post-Brady mediocrity, they’re back in the playoffs as the No. 2 seed, hosting the Los Angeles Chargers in a matchup that pits two of the league’s best defenses against each other. The Patriots have allowed just 18.2 points per game, third-best in the NFL, and their ability to control the clock with a punishing run game could neutralize the Chargers’ pass rush.
The Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 3 represent another remarkable turnaround. After a disastrous 4-13 campaign last year that cost their head coach his job, the new regime has transformed Trevor Lawrence into the quarterback everyone thought he would be coming out of Clemson. His 4,412 passing yards and 32 touchdowns both rank in the top five, and his decision-making in the red zone has been elite. They’ll face a Buffalo Bills team that’s dangerous as a No. 6 seed, with Josh Allen capable of single-handedly taking over any game.
The most intriguing Wild Card matchup might be the Steelers hosting the Houston Texans on Monday night. Pittsburgh’s defense, anchored by T.J. Watt’s 16.5 sacks, has been the backbone of their improbable division title. But the Texans’ offense, led by their second-year quarterback’s 39 total touchdowns, has the explosive potential to overwhelm even the best defensive units. This game could easily go either way, and the Monday night spotlight adds another layer of pressure.
The NFC: Seattle’s Dominance and the Question of Repeating
The Seattle Seahawks capturing the NFC’s top seed represents a complete organizational rebuild paying off in spectacular fashion. Their 14-3 record ties the franchise’s best since the Legion of Boom era, and their point differential of plus-147 suggests they’ve been even better than their record indicates. The first-round bye gives them a crucial advantage, especially with several key players nursing minor injuries heading into the playoffs.
But the most compelling storyline in the NFC belongs to the Philadelphia Eagles. Winners of Super Bowl LVIII last February, they’re attempting to become the first NFC team in 31 years to repeat as champions. The last team to accomplish that feat was the Dallas Cowboys in 1993-94, a drought that speaks to how difficult sustained excellence has become in the salary cap era. The Eagles will host the San Francisco 49ers, a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game that Philadelphia won 31-7.
The revenge factor makes Eagles-49ers the most anticipated Wild Card matchup in the NFC. San Francisco has retooled their roster after that humiliating loss, and they’ll enter Philadelphia with something to prove. The 49ers’ defense has been dominant down the stretch, allowing just 14 points per game over their final four regular season contests.
The NFC’s other matchups are equally compelling. The Chicago Bears hosting the Green Bay Packers on Saturday night is a rivalry game with playoff stakes, always a recipe for chaos. The Bears haven’t won a playoff game since 2010, while the Packers are trying to prove their young quarterback can handle postseason pressure. Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers hosting the Los Angeles Rams features two teams that have exceeded every preseason expectation, with both franchises completing dramatic one-year turnarounds.
Why This Year Feels Different
The absence of the Chiefs changes everything about how we should approach this postseason. Since Mahomes took over as starter, Kansas City had made the AFC Championship Game in six consecutive seasons, winning three of them on their way to Super Bowl appearances. They were the measuring stick for the entire conference, the team every other contender had to plan around.
Now that benchmark is gone, and no AFC team has stepped up to clearly fill the void. The Broncos have the best record, but they lack playoff experience at key positions. The Patriots are riding a wave of momentum, but their quarterback situation remains a question mark against elite competition. The Bills have the most talented quarterback in the field but have been prone to inexplicable collapses in big moments.
The NFC feels equally uncertain. The Seahawks are the clear favorite on paper, but they haven’t been tested in a playoff environment yet this decade. The Eagles have championship experience but also the pressure of history working against them. And lurking in the Wild Card round are 49ers and Packers teams that have made deep playoff runs in recent years and know what it takes to win in January.
Wild Card Weekend Predictions
Here’s how I see the six Wild Card games playing out:
Saturday, January 10: The Rams at Panthers game opens the weekend, and I’m taking Carolina in an upset. The Panthers’ home-field advantage and their ability to control the line of scrimmage should be enough to squeeze out a 24-20 victory. The Packers at Bears is the hardest game to predict, but I’ll take Green Bay’s experience in a 27-23 road win that continues Chicago’s playoff drought.
Sunday, January 11: The Bills finally break through with a convincing 31-17 win over the Jaguars, with Josh Allen throwing for three touchdowns and adding another on the ground. The Eagles handle their 49ers rematch with professional efficiency, winning 28-17 in a game that’s never really in doubt.
Monday, January 12: The Steelers-Texans Monday night game goes to overtime, with Pittsburgh’s defense making one final stand to secure a 23-20 victory. T.J. Watt forces a fumble in the extra period that sets up the game-winning field goal.
The Bottom Line
This is the most wide-open playoff field we’ve seen in years, and that should excite every football fan. The Chiefs’ absence removes the AFC’s gravitational center, while the NFC lacks a dominant force despite Seattle’s excellent record. Any of these fourteen teams can realistically make a run to Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara.
My early prediction: look for the Eagles to make history as repeat champions, defeating the Broncos in a Super Bowl that validates Philadelphia’s status as this era’s best-built franchise. But in a playoff field this chaotic, don’t be surprised if someone completely unexpected hoists the Lombardi Trophy on February 8th.
Wild Card Weekend begins Saturday at 4:30 PM ET. Clear your schedule, because this postseason is going to be special.
Sources: FOX Sports, CBS Sports, ESPN, NFL official statistics.
