The NFL’s final four have been set, and the storylines heading into conference championship weekend are better than any scriptwriter could manufacture. In the AFC, the New England Patriots will face the Denver Broncos, a matchup featuring a backup quarterback playing against his former team with a Super Bowl berth on the line. In the NFC, the Los Angeles Rams travel to Seattle to face a Seahawks team that just dismantled the San Francisco 49ers in the most lopsided divisional round game of the weekend. These four teams have navigated dramatic playoff victories to reach this point, and now only two games stand between them and Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara.
The divisional round delivered moments that will be replayed for decades. The Broncos staged an overtime comeback against the Bills despite losing Bo Nix to a broken ankle. The Patriots dominated the Texans with a defensive masterpiece that extended Houston’s painful divisional round history. The Seahawks embarrassed the 49ers in a 41-6 blowout that started with a kickoff return touchdown. The Rams survived Caleb Williams’ fourth-down miracle to win in overtime against the Bears. Now these survivors face off for the ultimate prize.
What makes this conference championship weekend particularly compelling is the uncertainty surrounding each matchup. The Broncos lost their starting quarterback. The Patriots are playing their best football at exactly the right time. The Seahawks look unstoppable but haven’t faced playoff-tested competition. The Rams keep finding ways to win despite inconsistent performances. None of these games feel like foregone conclusions.
AFC Championship: Patriots at Broncos
The biggest storyline in the AFC Championship isn’t a scheme matchup or a statistical trend. It’s Jarrett Stidham, the backup quarterback who will start for the Broncos against the team that drafted him. Stidham spent three years in New England, learning behind Tom Brady and starting four games during his career. Now he’s being asked to lead Denver to the Super Bowl against an organization that knows him intimately.
Bo Nix’s broken ankle, suffered in the final minutes of the divisional round victory over Buffalo, completely changed this matchup. The Broncos were favorites with Nix at quarterback, their elite defense complementing a quarterback who had grown into a legitimate franchise player during his rookie season. As ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky noted, Denver is now asking a player who hasn’t attempted an NFL pass since 2023 to keep their championship hopes alive, a situation with almost no precedent in modern playoff history.
The Patriots enter this game riding momentum from their dominant divisional round win. They forced five turnovers against Houston, per ESPN Stats & Info, including a pick-six from Marcus Jones that effectively ended the game in the second quarter. Their defense has been outstanding throughout the postseason, generating a pressure rate above 38 percent in the playoffs, according to PFF, making opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable at every turn.
New England’s offensive approach will likely change based on Stidham’s presence. They can afford to play conservatively, trusting their defense to keep games close while waiting for Denver’s inexperienced quarterback to make mistakes. The Broncos’ legendary defense remains intact, but even the best units struggle when they’re constantly put in difficult positions by offensive miscues.
Denver’s path to victory requires their defense to completely dominate. PFF’s Sam Monson has graded the Broncos’ defensive unit as the top-performing playoff defense this postseason, and if they can limit New England to under 20 points and generate turnovers, Stidham only needs to manage the game rather than win it. The Broncos have the talent to accomplish this, but as NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah has observed, asking any quarterback to perform in his first start in years during a conference championship is an enormous challenge that goes beyond scheme preparation into mental readiness.
The altitude at Mile High also works against Stidham. Quarterbacks with long layoffs from game action tend to struggle with timing, and Denver’s thin air accelerates ball flight in ways that subtly alter the release points on intermediate routes. Stidham last played at sea level in Las Vegas; readjusting to altitude mechanics during a championship game adds a layer of difficulty that Denver’s coaching staff has been drilling all week but cannot fully simulate under game pressure.
NFC Championship: Rams at Seahawks
The Seahawks’ performance against San Francisco was so dominant that it almost feels unfair to the 49ers to discuss it in detail. Rashid Shaheed’s 95-yard kickoff return touchdown on the opening play set the tone, and Seattle never looked back. The 41-6 final score represented the worst playoff loss in 49ers history, a complete dismantling of a team that entered the postseason as legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
Seattle’s defense suffocated Brock Purdy, forcing three turnovers while sacking the quarterback twice, per Pro Football Reference. Purdy completed just 47 percent of his passes under pressure, according to PFF, as the Seahawks took away everything San Francisco wanted to do offensively, leaving him with no comfortable options and no time to find solutions. If they can replicate that performance against the Rams, Los Angeles will face serious problems.
The Rams survived a much different experience in their divisional round victory. They trailed the Bears late in the fourth quarter and appeared destined for elimination until Caleb Williams connected on a miraculous fourth-down touchdown pass with under 30 seconds remaining. Harrison Mevis then drilled the game-winning field goal in overtime, sending Los Angeles to the conference championship in the most dramatic fashion possible.
That type of victory can galvanize a team or exhaust them emotionally. The Rams will need to quickly reset their focus and prepare for a Seahawks defense that’s playing at an entirely different level than what Chicago offered. Seattle’s ability to generate pressure without blitzing will be particularly problematic for a Rams offensive line that struggled at times during the divisional round.
Matthew Stafford’s experience in big games gives Los Angeles a significant advantage at the quarterback position. He’s been to this stage before, winning a Super Bowl with the Rams in 2022. As The Athletic’s Mike Sando has pointed out, that institutional knowledge matters when the pressure reaches its peak, because quarterbacks who have won conference championships historically perform better in subsequent appearances. Seattle’s Geno Smith has played well throughout the postseason, but he doesn’t have the same championship pedigree.
The home-field advantage in Seattle shouldn’t be underestimated. Lumen Field is one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL, and the Seahawks have historically dominated there during playoff games. The crowd noise affects communication, timing, and concentration in ways that don’t show up in traditional statistics but absolutely influence outcomes.
Where These Games Will Be Won
The Patriots’ secondary against Denver’s receiving corps is the pivotal battle in the AFC Championship. Without Nix’s mobility and playmaking ability, the Broncos will rely more heavily on their receivers winning individual matchups. New England’s defensive backs allowed a league-low 5.4 yards per target in the regular season, per Next Gen Stats, rarely giving receivers separation. If they can take away Denver’s first and second reads consistently, Stidham will face impossible decisions on nearly every dropback.
Seattle’s pass rush against the Rams’ offensive line presents a fascinating chess match. The Seahawks generated a 42 percent pressure rate against San Francisco while blitzing on fewer than 20 percent of dropbacks, per ESPN Stats & Info, allowing them to drop more players into coverage. If they can accomplish the same against Los Angeles, Stafford’s experience becomes less valuable because he won’t have time to survey the field and find openings.
The running games in both matchups will be crucial for controlling possession and shortening games. The Broncos need to establish their ground attack to take pressure off Stidham, while the Rams must find rushing success to set up play-action opportunities against Seattle’s aggressive secondary. Whichever team controls the clock more effectively will have a significant advantage.
Special teams could swing either game. Seattle’s coverage units held San Francisco to an average starting field position inside their own 22-yard line in the divisional round, and the Rams’ Mevis has proven clutch under pressure after drilling the overtime winner against Chicago. Punting and field position battles matter enormously in championship games where scoring opportunities are limited. A single mistake in the kicking game can be the difference between playing in the Super Bowl and watching it from home.
The Road to Santa Clara
Super Bowl LX awaits in Santa Clara on February 8th, and these conference championship games will determine which two teams earn the right to compete for the Lombardi Trophy. The venue adds intrigue because it’s the 49ers’ home stadium, meaning San Francisco fans will watch another team celebrate on their field after Seattle’s humiliating victory.
Each potential Super Bowl matchup offers compelling narratives. Patriots-Seahawks would be a rematch of Super Bowl XLIX, complete with memories of Malcolm Butler’s interception. Patriots-Rams would revisit the Super Bowl LIII meeting that New England won 13-3 in one of the lowest-scoring championship games ever. Broncos-Seahawks would pit two Western Conference powers with championship pedigrees. Broncos-Rams would feature Stidham trying to complete the most improbable Super Bowl run by a backup quarterback since Nick Foles.
The stakes couldn’t be higher for these four franchises. The Patriots are seeking to prove their dynasty years have a legitimate successor generation. The Broncos want to validate their belief that this roster can win championships. The Seahawks aim to return to Super Bowl glory after a decade-long absence. The Rams hope to add another championship to their recent success.
The Pick
AFC Championship: Patriots 20, Broncos 13. New England’s defense has been the best unit in these playoffs, and Stidham’s rust will show at the worst possible time. The Patriots’ coaching staff spent years building their defensive schemes alongside Stidham in practice; they know his tendencies, his progressions, and the throws he struggles with under pressure. Expect New England to disguise coverages early, force Stidham into two or three critical mistakes by the third quarter, and ride their ball-control rushing attack to close it out. Denver’s defense will keep this respectable, but the Broncos’ offense will manage fewer than 250 total yards.
NFC Championship: Seahawks 27, Rams 21. Seattle’s front four will be the difference. The Seahawks’ ability to pressure Stafford without blitzing means their secondary can bracket the Rams’ top targets while still outnumbering the run. Los Angeles will keep it close through halftime because Stafford is too smart to be rattled early, but Seattle’s depth advantage wears down the Rams’ offensive line in the second half. The telling factor is rest: the Seahawks coasted through a blowout while the Rams played overtime six days ago. That energy gap shows up in the fourth quarter, when Seattle pulls away with a late defensive touchdown.
The Super Bowl LX matchup to circle: Patriots versus Seahawks, a rematch of the Malcolm Butler game from eleven years ago, with both franchises rebuilt from the ground up since that unforgettable night in Glendale.
Sources
- 2025 NFL Playoff Standings & Statistics - Pro Football Reference
- Conference Championship Quarterbacks: Strengths, Weaknesses and What Could Decide the Super Bowl Race - PFF
- What’s Next for the Broncos, Patriots, Rams and Seahawks? First Look at Conference Title Games - ESPN
- NFL Next Gen Stats: Passing Stats - NFL Next Gen Stats
- What Went Right for the Seahawks, Patriots — and Wrong for the Rams, Broncos - ESPN, Bill Barnwell
