Shai Gilgeous-Alexander crossed halfcourt with the shot clock winding down and the Thunder trailing the Warriors by one point. He surveyed the defense, recognized the mismatch, and attacked. Two hard dribbles left, a step-back to create separation, and a jumper that splashed through with 2.4 seconds remaining. It was his 108th consecutive game with at least 20 points, the second-longest streak in NBA history behind only Wilt Chamberlain. For anyone still questioning whether SGA belongs in the MVP conversation, that shot served as an emphatic answer.
But here’s the complication for the reigning MVP: while he was hitting clutch shot after clutch shot, Nikola Jokic was putting together one of the most absurd statistical performances in league history. On Christmas Day, Jokic compiled 56 points, 16 rebounds, and 15 assists in an overtime victory against the Timberwolves, setting an NBA record with 18 points in the extra period alone. That game represented the first time in league history a player recorded at least 55 points, 15 rebounds, and 15 assists. Jokic isn’t just chasing Gilgeous-Alexander for MVP. He’s rewriting the record books while doing it.
The 2025-26 NBA season has reached its midpoint, and the league presents a picture of controlled chaos. The defending champion Thunder remain the team to beat in the Western Conference, but their grip on that title has loosened. Jokic’s injury has created uncertainty in Denver. Trade deadline rumors swirl around multiple stars. And somewhere in all of this, the most compelling MVP race in years continues to unfold.
The MVP Battle: SGA vs. Jokic
The numbers paint a portrait of two transcendent talents operating at historic levels. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game while leading the Thunder to the Western Conference’s best record, per NBA.com/stats. His efficiency remains elite, and his ability to dominate games from start to finish has only improved from his MVP-winning campaign last season. The Thunder’s system is built around SGA’s ability to create offense from anywhere on the floor, and he’s rewarded that trust with consistent excellence.
Jokic’s statistics are almost otherworldly: 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists per game, per Basketball Reference. He’s averaging a triple-double for the season, something only Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook have accomplished before. His 15 triple-doubles through the midseason mark, according to NBA.com/stats, are more than double any other player’s total. The Serbian center continues to do things that shouldn’t be possible for someone his size, controlling games through playmaking and basketball IQ rather than pure athleticism.
The debate between these two comes down to philosophical questions about what MVP should mean. Gilgeous-Alexander has the better team record and the pedigree of leading Oklahoma City to last year’s title. He’s the engine driving the league’s top team, and his consistency game after game has been remarkable. His mental discipline ensures that even his quieter nights still produce winning basketball.
Jokic’s case rests on the unprecedented nature of what he’s accomplishing individually. No one in league history has combined scoring, rebounding, and playmaking at his level. He’s doing this while carrying a Nuggets roster that has dealt with significant injuries and depth issues. Denver’s record would be substantially worse without Jokic’s superhuman efforts, which speaks to his value even if the team standings don’t match Oklahoma City’s.
The injury Jokic suffered in late December, a left knee hyperextension that will sideline him until at least late January, adds another variable to the race. If Denver struggles significantly in his absence, it could actually strengthen his MVP case by demonstrating how essential he is. Alternatively, a prolonged absence might give Gilgeous-Alexander the runway to pull ahead definitively. The next few weeks will reveal how much this injury impacts the final voting.
Contenders Positioning for February 5
The NBA trade deadline arrives February 5, and several teams are maneuvering to improve their championship odds. The landscape features clear contenders seeking final pieces, middling teams evaluating their direction, and struggling franchises considering whether to sell.
The Los Angeles Lakers present an intriguing case study in deadline dynamics. Despite sitting in fifth place in the West with a 21-11 record, they’ve lost seven of their last 13 games and need reinforcements. According to ESPN’s Tim Bontemps, the Lakers are aggressively seeking a two-way wing with size who can defend and space the floor. The New Orleans Pelicans, sitting on valuable pieces like Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III, have been resistant to trade either player. Los Angeles may need to look elsewhere to find the needle-mover they’re seeking.
The Giannis Antetokounmpo situation has dominated trade discourse for weeks, though recent developments suggest a blockbuster move may not materialize before the deadline. Knicks owner James Dolan stated publicly Monday that he’s unaware of any active trade discussions with Milwaukee, dampening speculation that New York would pursue the two-time MVP. The Thunder theoretically could offer the most compelling package, with their surplus of draft picks and young talent, but Oklahoma City appears focused on running it back rather than disrupting their chemistry with a major acquisition.
The chaotic nature of this NBA season extends to the trade market. The Athletic’s Sam Amick has reported that the fireworks might wait until summer, noting, “The asking prices are so steep right now that most GMs I’ve spoken with expect a quiet deadline followed by a chaotic offseason.” Teams appear hesitant to mortgage future flexibility for marginal improvements, especially with several star players potentially available when free agency opens.
The Defending Champions’ Challenge
The Thunder entered the season with a bullseye on their backs. They’ve responded admirably, holding the Western Conference’s best record despite facing opponents’ best efforts every night. But recent stumbles have revealed that even title holders aren’t invincible, and OKC’s grip on the West isn’t as secure as it appeared a month ago.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s individual excellence has carried OKC through stretches where their depth was tested by injuries and defensive lapses. The Thunder’s supporting cast, which played so well during last year’s playoff run, has been inconsistent. Their defensive rating has dropped compared to last season according to Cleaning the Glass, and they’ve lost games they should have won against inferior opponents. Winning ugly is a hallmark of repeat contenders, and Oklahoma City has sometimes struggled in that area.
The betting markets still favor the Thunder to repeat, and for good reason. Their core remains intact, their star is playing at an MVP level, and they’ve demonstrated the ability to raise their performance when it matters most. But the margin between first and fifth in the West is smaller than it’s been in years, and any prolonged slump could cost them home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.
Breakout Performances Reshaping the Landscape
While the MVP race focuses on Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic, other players have produced breakthrough seasons that demand recognition. Cade Cunningham has transformed the Detroit Pistons into a legitimate playoff contender, averaging career-highs across the board according to ESPN Stats & Info while demonstrating the leadership skills that made him the first overall pick in 2021. The Pistons entered the season with modest expectations and now sit among the East’s top six teams, almost entirely because of Cunningham’s development.
Victor Wembanyama continues his evolution into a franchise cornerstone for San Antonio. The second-year center has expanded his offensive repertoire while maintaining his defensive dominance, and the Spurs have been significantly better than projected largely because Wembanyama has accelerated his development timeline. He’s not in the MVP conversation yet, but another season of growth could put him there.
Jalen Brunson has elevated the Knicks into championship conversation through a combination of scoring, leadership, and clutch performance that has made him invaluable to New York. The Knicks’ starting lineup, when healthy, has been one of the league’s most effective units, and Brunson’s ability to orchestrate the offense while creating his own shot has been the catalyst. His assist numbers have climbed while his scoring hasn’t dropped, suggesting he’s reached another level of playmaking.
What the Second Half Will Decide
The NBA’s second half promises drama across multiple fronts. The MVP race between Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic will intensify as both players push for the award, with the Nuggets center’s return likely to coincide with a desperate Denver push for playoff positioning. The trade deadline will reveal which teams are truly committed to contending and which are planning for the future. And the playoff picture will crystallize, determining matchups that could produce the league’s next champion.
The Thunder remain favorites, but the path to repeating has never been more treacherous. The gap between the first and eighth seeds in the West stands at just five games, the tightest midseason margin since 2018, per Basketball Reference. Seeding matters in a conference this compressed, and every game from now until April carries real weight for home-court advantage.
The All-Star break arrives in February, offering a pause in the action and a moment to assess where the league stands. But for contenders, there’s no real break. The deadline falls during that period, meaning front offices will be working even while players rest. The NBA’s relentless calendar demands constant attention, and teams that lose focus risk falling behind in a race that offers no margin for error.
The Takeaway
The SGA-Jokic MVP race is exposing a deeper shift in how the league values its best players. Gilgeous-Alexander represents the modern archetype: a two-way guard whose value is inseparable from winning, backed by the best record in the conference and a championship ring. Jokic represents something rarer, a statistical outlier whose individual production defies historical comparison regardless of team context. As The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor has argued, this race is really a referendum on whether voters prioritize team success or individual transcendence, and the answer will shape MVP discourse for years to come.
The trade deadline’s quiet posture reinforces this dynamic. With contenders reluctant to overpay for marginal upgrades, the second half will likely be decided by the stars already in place rather than mid-season acquisitions. That puts even more weight on the MVP candidates: Gilgeous-Alexander’s ability to sustain Oklahoma City’s dominance without roster reinforcements, and Jokic’s capacity to drag Denver back into contention after missing critical weeks. Whichever player carries his team more convincingly through the stretch run will not just win the award but establish the template for what “most valuable” means in an era of player empowerment and roster flexibility.
Sources
- NBA Player Stats - 2025-26 Season - NBA.com/stats
- 2025-26 NBA Season Summary - Basketball Reference
- NBA MVP Straw Poll: SGA and Jokic Lead the Race - ESPN NBA
- SGA, Jokic, Giannis and Luka Off to Historic Starts - ESPN NBA
- NBA Betting: MVP Race After the Jokic Injury - ESPN
