The dust has barely settled from Wild Card Weekend’s historic chaos, and already the NFL is preparing for what could be an even more intense Divisional Round. Four games. Four stories. Four opportunities for the league’s remaining eight teams to punch their ticket to the conference championships. After a Wild Card Weekend that produced 12 fourth-quarter lead changes and three game-winning touchdowns in the final two minutes, expectations for this weekend couldn’t be higher. The Broncos and Seahawks, who earned first-round byes, will make their playoff debuts against teams riding the momentum of dramatic victories. The stage is set for another weekend that could define legacies and reshape our understanding of these postseason contenders.
The Divisional Round has historically been the most competitive round of the NFL playoffs, producing more upsets and close finishes than any other round. Since the current playoff format was established, home teams with byes have won approximately 65% of Divisional Round games, but that number has trended downward in recent seasons as the talent gap between seeds has narrowed. This year’s bracket presents a fascinating mix of veteran experience and young hunger, established dynasties and ascending programs, and quarterbacks at vastly different stages of their careers facing defining moments.
Bills at Broncos: The Rookie’s Moment of Truth
Saturday’s first game pits two franchises with dramatically different playoff histories in recent years. The Buffalo Bills have been knocking on the door of a Super Bowl appearance since Josh Allen’s emergence as an elite quarterback, while the Denver Broncos are making their first playoff appearance since winning Super Bowl 50 a decade ago. Bo Nix’s remarkable rookie season has brought Denver back to relevance, but now he faces the ultimate test against a Bills team that finally learned how to win close playoff games.
Allen’s performance against Jacksonville represented a significant milestone. For years, critics pointed to his inability to lead fourth-quarter comebacks in the postseason, citing the devastating 13-seconds loss to Kansas City as evidence that he couldn’t close in big moments. That narrative died on Sunday when Allen marched 75 yards in under three minutes to deliver the winning touchdown. He completed five consecutive passes, scrambled for 11 yards on a designed draw, and converted a fourth-and-two that would have ended Buffalo’s season. The monkey is officially off his back.
Nix enters this game having thrown for 3,775 yards and 29 touchdowns during the regular season, per Pro Football Reference, numbers that would have been unthinkable for a Broncos rookie just two years ago. His poise in the pocket and decision-making have exceeded all expectations, but he hasn’t faced anything like what Buffalo’s defense will present. The Bills allowed the third-fewest points in the AFC this season and have been particularly stingy against young quarterbacks, holding rookies to an average passer rating of just 71.3 this year, according to PFF. Denver’s home-field advantage at Empower Field at Mile High will matter, but Nix will need to play the best game of his young career to advance.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell identified Buffalo’s pass rush against Denver’s offensive line as the game’s pivotal matchup. Von Miller, who won Super Bowl 50 MVP for the Broncos, has been rejuvenated this season with eight sacks in his final contract year with Buffalo. The irony of Miller potentially ending Denver’s season won’t be lost on anyone. If the Bills can generate consistent pressure without blitzing, they’ll force Nix into the kind of quick decisions that have plagued him in his worst performances this season.
49ers at Seahawks: The Rivalry Renewed
The NFC’s marquee matchup features two teams that know each other intimately. San Francisco and Seattle have met in the playoffs 11 times, with the 49ers holding a 6-5 advantage, including that memorable NFC Championship Game following the 2013 season when Richard Sherman’s tip sealed Seattle’s trip to Super Bowl XLVIII. This iteration of the rivalry features different personnel but the same intensity that has defined NFC West football for decades.
The 49ers come into this game having just ended Philadelphia’s dynasty dreams with a 23-19 victory that showcased everything Kyle Shanahan’s offense does well. Brock Purdy’s game-winning touchdown pass to Christian McCaffrey demonstrated the kind of timing and precision that makes San Francisco’s scheme so difficult to defend. The play required Purdy to read a defensive rotation mid-drop and adjust his target accordingly, the type of mental processing that defines elite quarterback play. McCaffrey finished with 147 scrimmage yards, and his presence transforms San Francisco from a good offense into a great one.
Seattle’s bye week came at a crucial time. Geno Smith had been dealing with a nagging ankle injury that limited his mobility in the final weeks of the regular season, and the extra rest should have him at full strength for what promises to be a physical game. The Seahawks won the NFC West on the strength of their home-field advantage at Lumen Field, where they went 8-1 this season. Visiting teams committed 47 pre-snap penalties at Lumen Field this season per Pro Football Reference, 11 more than at any other NFL venue, a direct product of crowd noise generating communication breakdowns.
The chess match between Shanahan and Seattle defensive coordinator Clint Hurtt will determine this game’s outcome. Shanahan’s motion-heavy offense creates mismatches through pre-snap movement, but Seattle’s linebackers have shown excellent discipline in maintaining their assignments this season. The Seahawks allowed the fewest explosive plays (passes of 20+ yards or runs of 15+ yards) to any team during the regular season, per ESPN Stats & Info, a defensive identity that forces San Francisco into the kind of methodical, time-consuming drives that play into Seattle’s ball-control preferences.
Texans at Patriots: Stroud’s Poise Meets Maye’s Composure in Foxborough
Sunday’s early game presents a fascinating generational contrast. The Houston Texans, led by second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud, face the New England Patriots and their rookie signal-caller Drake Maye. Both franchises have undergone dramatic transformations in recent years, with Houston’s rebuild happening faster than anyone anticipated and New England’s post-Brady era finally showing signs of life.
The Texans dismantled the Steelers 30-6 on Monday night, earning their first road playoff victory in franchise history. Stroud was surgical, completing 22 of 29 passes for 286 yards and two touchdowns while avoiding the turnovers that plagued his playoff debut last year. Houston’s defense held Pittsburgh to just 198 total yards, their best performance of the season coming at the perfect time. If the Texans play this well in Foxborough, the Patriots will have their hands full.
New England’s 16-3 victory over the Chargers wasn’t pretty, but playoff wins rarely are. Maye managed the game expertly, avoiding the mistakes that young quarterbacks typically make in their first postseason action. His 187 passing yards won’t make highlight reels, but his two third-down conversions in the fourth quarter preserved the victory. As NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah noted, Maye’s pocket awareness and willingness to take what the defense gives him mirrors the composure that defined Tom Brady’s early playoff appearances. The Patriots have always valued winning over style, and Maye seems to have absorbed that philosophy.
The weather forecast calls for temperatures in the low 30s with potential snow flurries, conditions that typically favor the home team and ground-and-pound offenses. New England’s rushing attack, led by Rhamondre Stevenson, averaged 4.7 yards per carry this season, per Next Gen Stats, and should be even more effective in playoff conditions. Houston’s run defense ranked 18th in the league, a vulnerability that PFF’s Sam Monson flagged as the Texans’ most exploitable weakness entering the postseason.
Rams at Bears: Stafford vs. Williams
Sunday night’s primetime matchup features the weekend’s best storyline: Matthew Stafford’s veteran excellence against Caleb Williams’ breakout playoff moment. The Rams’ 34-31 victory over Carolina saw Stafford prove once again that he remains one of the NFL’s best clutch performers, driving 75 yards for a game-winning touchdown with under two minutes remaining. Williams answered with his own legendary performance, leading the Bears to an 18-point fourth-quarter comeback against Green Bay that ended 85 years of playoff frustration against the Packers.
The narratives practically write themselves. Stafford, at 37, is playing what could be his final season as a starting quarterback. He won a Super Bowl with the Rams four years ago and has nothing left to prove, yet continues to perform at an elite level when the stakes are highest. Williams, at 23, is just beginning to understand what he’s capable of. His fourth-quarter performance against Green Bay suggested a quarterback who can handle the biggest moments, but one game doesn’t make a career. How will he respond now that expectations have shifted?
Chicago’s home-field advantage at Soldier Field cannot be overstated. The Bears went 7-2 at home this season, and the crowd’s energy during the comeback against Green Bay reached levels not seen since the 1985 Super Bowl team. Ben Johnson’s offense has found its identity in the second half of the season, utilizing Williams’ mobility and arm talent in ways that make the Bears nearly impossible to defend when clicking. The no-huddle package they unveiled against the Packers exhausted Green Bay’s defense and will likely appear again against Los Angeles.
The Rams counter with Puka Nacua, who has emerged as one of the NFL’s most dangerous receivers. As The Athletic’s Mike Sando observed, Nacua’s 38-second-remaining touchdown catch against Carolina showcased his ability to create separation against any coverage, and his connection with Stafford borders on telepathic. Cooper Kupp’s return from injury has given Los Angeles a 1-2 receiving punch that few defenses can handle, particularly when Aaron Donald and the Rams’ defensive line are controlling the trenches.
The Pick
Bills 27, Broncos 17. Buffalo’s defense strangles Nix into the kind of quick, indecisive reads that produced his three worst games this season. Allen accounts for three total touchdowns, and the game is never truly in doubt after halftime.
Seahawks 20, 49ers 16. Seattle’s league-best explosive-play prevention forces Purdy into a checkdown-heavy game plan, and Lumen Field’s crowd noise produces at least two drive-killing false starts. The Seahawks grind this out with a fourth-quarter field goal.
Texans 24, Patriots 13. Stroud dissects New England’s zone coverage with surgical intermediate throws. Maye keeps it respectable, but Houston’s pass rush generates four sacks and two turnovers that break the game open in the third quarter.
Bears 31, Rams 28. Williams outduels Stafford in a shootout that lives up to the primetime billing. Chicago’s tempo-driven attack generates 14 second-half points as the Rams’ defense fatigues in the cold at Soldier Field.
The underlying pattern this bracket reveals is that the bye-week advantage has eroded to nearly nothing in the modern NFL. Since 2020, teams coming off byes in the Divisional Round are just 12-12 against Wild Card winners, per Pro Football Reference. Rest no longer compensates for the rhythm and confidence a team builds from winning a playoff game seven days earlier. Denver and Seattle enter with fresher legs but colder timing, and in a league where quarterback play peaks through repetition under pressure, that rust matters more than any extra day of film study.
Sources
- NFL Playoff Schedule, Bracket, and Results - ESPN
- 2025-26 NFL Playoff Statistics and Historical Trends - Pro Football Reference
- NFL Divisional Playoff Round Preview: Highest-Graded Players and Matchups to Watch - PFF
- NFL Divisional Round Schedule and Results 2026 - CBS Sports
- NFL Playoff Bracket - NFL.com
